IDC Simulation: "Iran: The Day After"

18 May 2010 , 13:45

Simulation involving previous high ranking officials, diplomats and academics conclude that Israel would show restraint during a Hezbollah attack if Iran has nuclear weapons.

Eduardo Missri

A nuclear Iran would effectively deter Israel from a disproportionate response after a long-range missile falls in the heart of Tel-Aviv, according to the conclusions of a simulation held at IDC Herzliya organized by the Lauder School of Government on Sunday (May 16).

The simulation “Iran: The Day After” was based on a similar event that took place in Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government which ended with Russia and China siding with Iran and a crisis developing between the United States and Israel.

The scenario simulated a Hezbollah attack in the center of Tel Aviv Ministry of Defense building in the Kyria Military Base. During this round, the participants, among them high ranking officials, academics and diplomats, were unable to mount a full military response even though discreet messages from Arab countries pushed Israel to go “all the way”.

Israel instead was restrained by the United States which after knowing that Hezbollah had slipped a dirty bomb to Hezbollah mounted a full international response with surprising support from many countries. The multinational force would go into Lebanon to secure the radioactive material and to implement resolution 1701 to disarm Hezbollah.

Retired Air Force Commander Eitan Ben-Eliahu said that “Iran deterrence proved dizzyingly effective.”

Moroever, former Israeli ambassador to the U.S., Zalman Shoval, led the Israeli team as Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said that “This would be a very serious act of war with serious losses of life and would be seen this way by the public. As Prime Minister, I would call for the opposition to join an emergency coalition government and hold a conversation with the president of the U.S. We would expect the U.S. to make clear decisions in regard to an umbrella defense for us in the region.” He also added that Israel would wait to coordinate a response with the U.S.

“As far as the United States was concerned, Israel was trigger-happy. It sought to use the Hezbollah attack as a justification for what the United States was told would be an all-out war,” said Dan Kurtzer, former U.S. ambassador to Israel who played President Barack Obama.

Referring to the quick response to Hezbollah’s dirty bomb smuggled by Iran, Dan Kurtzer said that “In certain circumstances U.S. diplomacy can actually work in this region, and it ends up not only leaving Israel in check but it also ends up leading a more willing international coalition.”

Also in the event, Maj. Gen (res.) Zeevi Farkash participated as the Iranian Supreme leader Ali Khamenei and doubted that Iran would be hostile after achieving nuclear capability. “Iran would regard its bomb as a means of self-defense and strategic balance,” he said.

Tzipi Livni, the head of the opposition, attended the simulation as an observer. During the conclusions she said, “As leader of the free world, the United States has the responsibility of leading more effective sanctions that can turn around, absolutely, this shift from a process of stopping Iran to a process of acceptance.
source:http://dover.idf.il/IDF/English/News/today/10/05/1802.htm